Training vs Inference Economics: Where the Next Cost Compression Happens

Two Opposite Cost Curves

Each leading-edge training generation costs roughly an order of magnitude more than the last. Per-token inference cost falls by roughly an order of magnitude per year. For OpenAI and Anthropic this means recurring training cycles and pre-listing dilution.

Where Groq Sits

Groq's LPU architecture is purpose-built for inference. Success is becoming a structural participant in the inference market, not displacing GPU incumbents wholesale.

The SpaceX Mental Model

SpaceX's launch-cost compression curve is the cleanest precedent for what AI silicon cost-down does to the addressable market.

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